Skip to main content

The Correction (& Persistence) Of Anomalies

During dreary journeys across the market landscape scouring for interesting opportunities, the investor occasionally stumbles upon an oasis. Of extreme anomaly. The sighting is generally a mirage, a ray of false hope; but in some instances, the manifestation is very real and extremely intriguing, especially so when the anomaly manifests across companies operating in the same business.

The anomaly was first highlighted here ('Over-priced anomalies in bear markets'), when discussing One Life Capital Advisors (Bloomberg: OCAP IN). Extreme pricing is generally either an outcome of mass euphoria/fear, or a flock of informed market participant presence. OCAP IN seemed to be in the latter category. The post also highlighted the case of peer, Brescon Corporate Advisors (Bloomberg: BFS IN), as an example of under-appreciation. 

For brevity, the scheme of things as on the date of writing (Dec '11) is reproduced:


Such cases of extreme pricing always pique my interest. The situation seemed too far removed from reality. Diligence corroborated my hunch on OCAP IN's ridiculous pricing, and it corroborated my hunch of under-pricing in the case of BFS IN.

A mid-market focused investment banking, debt restructuring franchise with a reasonably long history of operations and respectable brand value seemed to be completely unloved. The company small size ($3.5 mm market value) and low liquidity were partly the reasons. Competition from investors scouring this market segment is limited and severe anomalies sometimes manifest, as a result.

BFS IN was available for far less than its cash and liquid investments (including equities), even after allowing for diminution in carrying value of these investments. Essentially, market participants were assigning no value to the business, a relatively reasonable operating history; a clear anomaly. 

As sentiment picked up in the first quarter of 2012 on the back of renewed FII inflows, stocks of under-appreciated companies come under the spotlight. BFS IN benefited from this surge in sentiment and currently trades at a market value of c.$7 mm, a 100% gain in a few months. The current market value is equal to its cash and liquid securities. Market participants continue to assign little value to either the business or its franchise, which is reasonably strong in its focus area. The margin-of-safety has since compressed but the example illustrates the minimal force that is sometimes required to effect a meaningful correction in anomalies.

On the other hand, the persistence of over-pricing is another intriguing aspect. OCAP IN continues to enjoy a market value of c.$70 mm - 10x BFS IN's market value - which, given its competitive standing, operational history, franchise value, business size, makes for an Alice in Wonderland situation. Shorting isn't the easiest in India but even if one could, the wait and weight of pain would be excruciating.
 
The principal risk in unloved companies is (1) questionable numbers/management, (2) the absence of a catalyst that could allow restorative forces to act with rigour. (1) is within the realm of known-unknowns and can be tackled to a reasonable degree. (2) is more sketchy. Sometimes, the catalyst takes so long materialising as to be virtually useless for value emergence. The catalyst in this case was an uptick in sentiment. But insisting on fat discounts to true worth allows leeway for unknown-unknowns that might afflict the company under consideration.

I'm watching this one closely, as I continue on my journey across the market landscape.



Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Greece: A 2,500 year parallel

Old habits die hard . So the adage goes. As the Greece bailout drama unfolds, the curious mind began prodding, ' M aybe its in their history?'. The questioning mind always seems to find a way to some provisional answers. Till more questions goad it on to continue the journey.  5th century BC Greece's economic history, interestingly, provides some thought-worthy parallels to Greece's present-day problems.  History The discovery of gold and silver mines at Siphnos provided Greece access to easy revenues. As was the flavour of the day, once the Gods took their share the rest of the profits from the mines were distributed among the subjects. The Greek citizens abhorred direct taxes but approved taxing foreigners, taxing property and indirect taxes. The easy prosperity somewhat fuelled imperial ambitions and marked the beginning of a sense of entitlement among the subjects.  While rulers in Asia managed to impose a direct tax on their subjects, Greece ...
2 comments
Read more

'CORN'y Connection

A common theme in investing is that, in the long-term, asset prices adhere to fundamentals. The road to adherence is often an irregular one, prices overshoot and undershoot along the way...but ultimately, they behave like obedient children. Sometimes though, the relationships between asset prices are hidden from the eye. Peer through the layers and one might just be able to come up with a relationship that could form the basis of a trading strategy. 'Corn'y Connection , is one such linkage... The Craze for Maize Lot of factors have driven corn (maize) prices of late. The rush of demand for et hanol has ensured that corn finally got its due. Apart from the fundamental factors of demand and supply, speculative demand for the commodity has served to increase the volatility in corn prices. Not surprisingly, corn prices have surged quite a bit (refer adjoining figure) . Along with the rise in corn prices, the 200-day historic volatility has increased significantly. Cor...
7 comments
Read more

Freudian Vulture Fallacy

“Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar .” - Sigmund Freud ***** CAN YOU SEE A VULTURE? "The Virgin and Child with St. Anne" by Leonardo da Vinci (1503) In a 1910 essay, Freud made a valiant attempt at divining an aspect of the painter Leonardo da Vinci’s personality through the above painting. Freud peered at the picture after tilting his head to the left, and noticed a vulture. Off went Freud on his psychoanalytic jet and concluded that the picture hid an insight into the painter’s life.  It seemed to speak volumes about da Vinci’s ‘homosexual’ childhood fantasy. Freud relied on a translation of da Vinci’s writings, apart from the painting, for his interpretation. Only the unforgiving arrow of time would pass true judgment on Freud’s mental frolics. The great man had mistranslated the word for ‘vulture’. The edifice on which Freud’s theory of da Vinci’s sexual fantasies rested was an illusion. Freud apparently considered the essay to be the on...
Post a Comment
Read more