Haphazard Linkages

The US election is history. The dust has settled and life reverts to the dreariness of the usual. It is an appropriate time to pause awhile and look at some intriguing outcomes of the election. Voting is perceived as an activity centred around individual voter self-interest. Well-balanced, informed voter base is an assumption that is considered unworthy of a re-examination. While the self-interest angle is quite palpable, the gamut o f reasons put forth by voters on picking a certain candidate are often mired in v agueness .  The following is an edited excerpt of an recent email exchange with a friend. HaLin wasn't eligible for voting, but under the garb of a market participant, had much practical interest in the outcome. This post is a summary of events as they happened . Does individ ual rational behaviour lead to collective rational ou t come? I t is time to dive in to the world of individual definitions , nomenclature and qualitative perceptions. ----------...

The Day of Resurrection is probably an opportune moment to pause and gauge the pulse of the market. After the forgettable dalliance with 2011, risk assets seem to have found an amenable ally in 2012 so far. Tepid interest from FII towards India in 2011 has been replaced by renewed fervour ($9 billion net inflows in 1Q2012 v/s -c.$1 billion net outflow in 2011).  Interestingly, very little has changed fundamentally. The March budget was a damn squib, with the Finance Minister hoping to walk the tight rope between taming inflation, curbing a burgeoning fiscal deficit, without fettering growth. The Budget was, however, low on major reforms and irksome issues continue to make their presence felt. Yet, FII continue to pile in.  One of the intriguing things about human behaviour is its stickiness in altering the status quo prevailing bias. After a prolonged period of bull market, bearishness/pessimism is a rarity; likewise, after a bearish period, bullishness/optimism ...

The previous post was squeezed in-between trades (to have a standing record of my thoughts-in-motion). I spared myself a rather longish exposition on history and behaviour. Now that the gyrations have played out (somewhat; and I have unwound my panic trades ), I have time for a breather. The US debt downgrade was greeted with knee-jerk reactions followed by various voices crying hoarse, expressing solidarity in Uncle Sam’s debt. The Risk switch snapped from ‘On’ to ‘Off’ and capital duly forsake equities, fleeing into US Treasuries, Gold and CHF (Swiss Franc). The flight into Gold was understandable, given its current-flavour-of-the-season status as a safe-haven. The CHF and US Treasuries' behaviour were queer, to say the least.  Crisis moments in history always provide good food for the curious brain. 1987 stock market crash The 1987 stock market crash triggered a bout of risk-aversion. Panicking investors pulled out of equities to seek refuge in Treasury bonds. Gold was s...