Happy birthday Black Thursday!

Today is the 80th anniversary of the Stock Market Crash of 1929. Its an interesting time to reflect back on the 80 long years that have passed by to see if things have changed. Have they? The more boom/bust cycles look different the more they look the same.

So what lessons have we learnt?

- That hope has driven - and will always drive - people to monetary dope.
- That lending schools eventually end up bending rules.
- That a borrowing binge frequently ends in a harrowing cringe.
- That in a boom...greed goes up, fear down.
- That after the bust, greed dies and fear gains renown.
- That in a boom...an allusion to delusion is dismissed as an illusion.
- That after a bust...the delusion of an illusion leads to reclusion.
- That people buy when they should sell, ignoring the alarm bell.
- That people sell when they should buy, ignoring the market's sigh.
- That when we hear things get cheaper as they rise and dearer as they fall, its time for Cindrella to leave the ball.
- That the 'smart money' ain't that smart after all.
- That after a market chasm, capitalism gives way to socialism.
- That the prudent end up paying, while the indulgent end up staying.

...That history is doomed to repeat itself...

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Book review: In the Long Run we are all Dead

In the Long Run we are all Dead: A Macroeconomics murder mystery The US economy faces a deep recession, raging inflation and an impending run on the dollar. President Wedik likes economics as much as a fish likes land. Should he listen to the Keynesians, who favour government intervention or the Monetarists, who favour market fundamentalism?

Unable to decide, he delegates the tough decision to his Chief of Staff, Admiral Harcourt Green. Green laboriously goes through the process of coming up with an economic policy package...only to be mysteriously murdered on D-day. Details of the economic package dies with him...
Something has to be done soon to avoid an economic collapse. What? How?
Who committed the murder? And why?
The murder story could probably have been constructed better but the crux of the book is economics! Recommend it to those looking for a light read on macroeconomics without running the risk of drowning in jargon.
In this delightfully light read, Wolfson & Buranelli, weav…

Napoleon’s Lucky Generals: "I know he's a good general, but is he lucky?"

With most market participants making money this year, the timeless quote by Napoleon in the subject line rears its head, once again. Regular non-readers know the wonderment I have on the impact of luck on investment outcomes.
The markets have been on a tear (sure you didn’t notice), and my mailbox/chat is seeing two polarized stances. On one side is the Bullish Apology. Where market participants pre-emptively share justifications for continued strong markets everywhere. This group exhibits hyper optimism, using recent history as the periscope through which to peer at and gauge the future.
The second, and potentially, the more interesting group, is the Bubble Babble crowd. This group looks askance at the rallies, and deems things a bubble. This year has given this group a great polarizer. Bitcoin. A tiny bit know much about it. Most know a bit about it; yet there is a growing supply of those sharing their two coins, calling Bitcoin a bubble.
Both groups share certain characteristics. The…

Mind Of The Market - I : Pavlovian Conditioning, Paradoxes & The Psychology Of Herding

In what should evolve into a multi-part series, Mind of the Market will endeavour to peer under the hood of the largest laboratory of human psychology in the world; the financial markets. Where frigid numbers and emotive participants spar enthusiastically in an elaborate and often bewildering drama-in-motion. Where apparitions and reality merge so finely as to be mostly indistinguishable. Where paradoxes and circular relationships reign supreme, frequently, and fervently, questioning the very essence of rationality and cause-and-effect.
Part I addresses the dynamics of Pavlovian Conditioning and market participant response to stimuli in investment decision-making. Intriguing paradoxes and the behaviour of asset prices - a cause (and consequence) of market participant response - is considered concomitantly. Finally, the psychology of herding closes Part I.
Pavlovian Conditioning and Asset Price Behaviour When Ivan Pavlov discovered his lasting contribution to humanity - Classical Condi…

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